NASCAR at Kansas odds, predictions: Proven model reveals surprising 2024 AdventHealth 400 picks, leaderboard

The 2024 AdventHealth 400 will take place on Sunday at Kansas Speedway, with the green flag scheduled to drop at 3 p.m. ET. Denny Hamlin joined William Byron as the only two drivers with three wins so far during the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series with a victory at Dover last week. However, Kyle Larson remains on top of the NASCAR standings through 11 races, as he holds a 15-point advantage over Martin Truex Jr. 

Larson is the 4-1 favorite according to the 2024 AdventHealth 400 odds. He’s followed by Hamlin (9-2), Tyler Reddick (6-1), Truex (15-2) and Byron (8-1). Meanwhile, Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell are priced at 10-1 in the NASCAR at Kansas odds, while Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs are both listed at 12-1. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Kansas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 AdventHealth 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure’s model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch’s Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin’s triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson’s wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. 

Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 AdventHealth 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Kansas leaderboard.

Top 2024 AdventHealth 400 predictions

For the 2024 AdventHealth 400, the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he’s a 22-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Kansas odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 31-year-old is currently 10th in the NASCAR standings but he’s still seeking his first victory to virtually assure that he’ll be participating in the NASCAR playoffs for a third consecutive season.

Chastain had a breakthrough season in 2022, capturing his first two career victories in the NASCAR Cup Series and finishing second in the standings. He followed that up with two more victories in 2023 but wound up finishing ninth during the postseason. He’s been 13th or better with three top-10 finishes over his last four starts at Kansas Speedway.

Another massive shocker: Martin Truex, Jr., who is second in the standings and listed as one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Kansas NASCAR starting lineup.

Truex missed the NASCAR playoffs entirely in 2022 after his first winless season since 2014, but he followed that up with three wins in 2023. However, he still finished a disappointing 11th in the standings and even though he’s been a better points racer early in 2024, he’s still winless through 11 races. He finished 36th after a crash in his most recent start at Kansas and he’s been outside the top 10 in three of his last four starts entering the weekend. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Kansas picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Kansas odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2024 AdventHealth 400, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Kansas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Kansas leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.

2024 AdventHealth 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Kansas picks at SportsLine

Kyle Larson 4-1
Denny Hamlin 9-2
Tyler Reddick 6-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-2
William Byron 8-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Christopher Bell 10-1
Ty Gibbs 12-1
Bubba Wallace 12-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Alex Bowman 22-1
Ross Chastain 22-1
Kyle Busch 25-1
Joey Logano 40-1
Brad Keselowski 45-1
Chris Buescher 55-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Noah Gragson 100-1
Daniel Suarez 125-1
Michael McDowell 200-1
Carson Hocevar 250-1
Josh Berry 300-1
Erik Jones 300-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Austin Dillon 300-1
Austin Hill 350-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 350-1
Austin Cindric 500-1
Jimmie Johnson 500-1
Corey Lajoie 500-1
John Hunter Nemechek 500-1
Zane Smith 750-1
Harrison Burton 750-1
Daniel Hemric 1000-1
Justin Haley 2000-1
Todd Gilliland 2000-1
Riley Herbst 2500-1
Derek Kraus 5000-1