Less than 24 hours before the kickoff of Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, the San Francisco 49ers were consensus 2-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs.
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But the line has dipped to 1½ at several Las Vegas sportsbooks and at FanDuel.
Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay says he’s taking the Niners.
“It’s always tough to go against Mahomes and (Chiefs coach Andy) Reid in these situations,” Kornegay said. “But I don’t think (49ers coach Kyle) Shanahan is going to get outcoached. San Francisco has a few more weapons that they can utilize, namely (wide receiver) Deebo Samuel. I think he’s going to play a big part in this game.
“I’m picking the Niners to win, but I can’t say I’ve got full confidence in it. It’s going to be a tight game with a couple big plays deciding the winner.”
Here’s what bettors should know:
— Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 against the spread as an underdog and has led the Chiefs to three straight outright underdog wins in the postseason, including last year’s 38-35 victory over the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
— Kornegay says the general public is betting on the Chiefs, but the vast majority of confirmed six-figure bets (or more) confirmed have been on the 49ers.
— The consensus over/under total is 47½, and 90 percent of the money at the SuperBook is on the over, Kornegay said.
— Despite missing a few games during the regular season with a shoulder injury, Niners wide receiver Deebo Samuel had 1,200 total yards and 12 total touchdowns for the second time in his career. In the NFC Championship Game, he caught eight passes and carried three times for a total ofn 96 yards. He has yet to score in this postseason.
— Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (you know his as Taylor Swift’s boyfriend) had a subpar season, failing to top 1,000 receiving yards for the first time. But he has returned to Pro Bowl form in the playoffs. He has topped 70 receiving yards in all three postseason games, and he has seen his share of targets (Chiefs’ passes throw to him) increase from 21.2% in the regular season to 26.2% in the playoffs.
— No running back has been named Super Bowl MVP since Broncos’ Terrell Davis rushed for 157 yards and three touchdowns 25 years ago. Since then, 83% of Super Bowl MVPs have been a quarterback (61%) or a wide receiver (22%). But Niners’ RB Christian McCaffrey has four touchdowns in the playoffs and 25 TDs in 18 games played this season.
— Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is 33-for-35 on field-goal attempts this season, converting all 12 attempts from 40 yards or more, including five of 50 yards or more. He has a career-long of 62 yards and is 28-for-31 in the playoffs since 2018. Niners rookie kicker Jake Moody is 1-for-3 on kicks of 40 to 49 yards in the playoffs, though he did make a 52-yarder against Green Bay.