North Jersey leads regional pandemic jobs recovery, data show

New data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that, four years out, many places have yet to recover from the pandemic. But North Jersey is not one of them.

In a May 7 regional update on employment trends, the Garden State posted the highest jobs gains in the local area. In fact, Central Jersey’s figures beat the U.S. in terms of local employment changes for the four years covering February 2020 to March 2024.

However, as the title of an accompanying blog post from the Fed would indicate, that success is not equally shared. According to “Many Places Still Have Not Recovered from the Pandemic Recession,” the challenges these areas – often hardest hit by the pandemic – face are expected to persist.

Atlantic City-Hammonton was the only New Jersey area identified as “not recovered,” posting job losses (-1.1%).

During that 2020-2024 window, the U.S. had gains of 3.8%, according to the Fed, which sourced data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s.

Locally, recovery varied throughout the following New Jersey metropolitan areas:

• Bergen-Hudson-Passaic: 2.2%
• Vineland-Bridgeton: 2.9%
• Newark Metro Division: 3.4%
• Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ: 3.5%
• Trenton, NJ: 4.1%
• Middlesex-Monmouth-Ocean: 4.7%
• Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ: 4.7%
• Camden, NJ: 7.1%
• Ocean City, NJ: 13%

The New York Fed covers the Second District, including New York state, northern New Jersey (highlighted in red above), southwestern Connecticut, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

“The economy on the whole is doing well. We are experiencing a return of inflation, perhaps unevenly, but still clearly back to target. The labor market is functioning very well right now. The unemployment picture is quite positive. So many things look different than they did a few years ago …” explained Kartik Athreya, the New York Fed’s director of research and head of the research and statistics group, during a call with reporters May 7.

Against the wind

However, more than a quarter of the region’s metro areas still have job shortfalls. For these areas, the Fed pointed to several contributing factors.

First, these communities are playing catch-up. Generally, they were hit particularly hard by the pandemic, “leaving a deeper hole to dig out of.” Additionally, the Fed said these areas tended to be slower-growing economies even before COVID’s onset and effects. Now, they face an ongoing struggle to find the workers they need spark economic growth.

As an example, Regional Economic Principal Joelle Scally offered details about Buffalo. Between February 2020 and April 2020, there was a 21.5% decline in total jobs. That, she said, was much larger than the national 13.4% decline.

“And so many of these areas were also slow growth economies for years before the pandemic,” she explained. “So they really just didn’t have the business activity and the momentum in place to recover.”

When asked what was driving regional differences, Scally pointed to the breakdown of sectors operating in these spaces. Being able to attract workers is also key.

Attracting talent

Head of Urban and Regional Studies Jaison Abel highlighted how important the availability of workers is as a growth factor. He pointed out that some places are better at this than others.

“That’s definitely the case when you look at differences in Northern New Jersey compared to other parts of the country and region–is that that’s an area that has really been successful at attracting people,” Abel said.

In New Jersey, Economic Research Advisor Richard Deitz said that the growth in health care jobs has been “like gangbusters” throughout the entire recovery period. “And that is part of what the region is specializing in and it is helping to reorient the economy.”

Deitz pointed out that the sector’s growth predates the pandemic, an apparent inversion to those areas that are now having to dig themselves out of a deeper hole to recover. He also highlighted gains in education employment and, of course, the industrial/distribution boon the pandemic ushered in.

“And I think one of the things we saw in through the pandemic was this big increase in transportation and warehousing jobs,” Deitz said, adding he thinks the area has since cooled. “So the distribution of goods became much more important and was a big boost to job growth in that sector, including in northern New Jersey, especially distribution centers and things like Amazon distribution centers.”