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NBA picks, odds, best bets for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: Why Denver closes out series in high-scoring Game 6

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The 2024 NBA postseason is well underway, and the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

Obviously, what Nikola Jokic did to Minnesota speaks for itself. There’s no solution to the three-time MVP, and if there were, you can bet the Wolves would have tried it. They’ve thrown every combination of their big men at him in singles and doubles and nothing has worked. Of course, everyone who plays Denver has that problem. Minnesota has a more pressing one. The Timberwolves can’t score. Minnesota is getting only 106.1 points per 100 possessions in its last three games and will have either an injured Mike Conley or no Conley at all in Game 6. Game 5 showed us just how hard that makes life for Anthony Edwards. It puts the offense’s entire creation burden on his shoulders, and the Nuggets responded by frequently sending an extra man at him off of screens. He finished with just 18 points. You could potentially convince me that the No. 1 defense does a bit better against Jokic in Game 6. I don’t think the Timberwolves can score enough to beat the Nuggets. The Pick: Nuggets +2

The books have been reluctant to move the point total line up over the past several games. The Game 6 figure of 205 is still low when you remember Games 3, 4 and 5 all came in between 207 and 222. What’s so daunting about that number is that the Nuggets and Timberwolves combined to make only 17 3-pointers in Game 5. Everything was sustainable and inside of the arc. If the 3-point spigot turns on as it did in Game 4, they’re going to leave this point total in the dust, but even if it doesn’t, well, we saw that version of this matchup play out in Game 5 and the over still hit. The Pick: Over 205

The Nuggets did well to turn Edwards into a passer in Game 6. Unless Conley proves he’s healthy enough to punish them (should he even suit up), expect the Nuggets to maintain a similar defensive strategy. It worked overall, but Edwards still managed to rack up nine assists in the loss. That’s an outcome Denver will accept, and one Minnesota hasn’t found a way to avoid. The Pick: Edwards Over 6.5 Assists

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