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The upcoming summer travel season will be extraordinarily busy and exceed pre-pandemic levels, though it will look a bit different than the past two summers when Americans caught the travel bug after years of COVID-19 restrictions. On the wane is so-called revenge travel, a post-pandemic phenomenon in which Americans who were desperate to make up for lost time booked exotic, and often expensive, “bucket list” adventures.
This year, the trend has shifted back to more traditional vacation destinations and cost-conscious practices. But overall travel volume will hit historic highs this summer. Online travel agency Expedia says flight searches are up 25%, overall for June through August, compared with the same time last year. And interest in international destinations across Europe and Asia is up by triple digits. The number of Americans who eventually book a trip this summer will be on par with last summer. But globally, 4.7 billion people are expected to travel in 2024, compared with 4.5 billion in 2019, with much of that travel occurring this summer. That means that flights, hotels and attractions in the United States and abroad will be crowded to levels unseen in years.
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Domestic airfares will remain in line with or just slightly higher than last summer. Fares will begin to rise in May, reaching a peak at the end of May and early June.
To save money, avoid holiday weekends and travel during late August, if possible, when airfares will drop more than $100.
International airfare will be a mixed bag. Overall, prices will drop for most regions of the world, compared with last year, though they will still be higher than pre-pandemic levels. But airfares will fluctuate significantly depending on the destination, so bargain airfares won’t be found everywhere.
Avoid holiday weekends and travel during late August, when airfares will drop more than $100.
Flight disruptions are a definite possibility this summer as airlines struggle to put enough planes in the air to meet demand. Some carriers will be forced to trim their schedules to cope with a lack of available planes due to production problems at aircraft makers Boeing and Airbus.
When planning a trip, be wary of major events taking place locally that boost prices and shrink availability for hotels, restaurants and car rentals.
For Europe, avoid Paris during the Olympics in July and August.
The same goes for Germany from mid-June to mid-July, when it hosts the quadrennial European Football [soccer] Championship.
And singer Taylor Swift’s European tour this summer will cause price and availability issues in every city where she performs.
Domestically, political party conventions in Milwaukee (July) and Chicago (August) mean accommodations will be at a premium during those events, if they’re available at all.
If you’re hitting the road this summer, gas prices in the U.S. should be similar to or slightly higher than last year, ranging from about $3.50 to $4 a gallon, although some states will be much more expensive. Still, unforeseen international issues, like a worsening situation in the Middle East, could suddenly boost the national average well above $4.
Car rental prices will be slightly above last summer’s, with fleet availability improved over last year.
Domestic hotel prices and availability will be in line with last year. But also consider short-term housing rental agencies like Airbnb, as this option may be more affordable and convenient, particularly for families and groups.
As for where Americans are headed, interest in off-the-beaten-path locales that became popular immediately after the pandemic hasn’t evaporated. One booming trend is “destination dupes” — affordable alternatives to popular tourist spots. Think Liverpool for London, or Québec City for Geneva.
Another trend is “set-jetting” — traveling to destinations that are filming locations of TV shows and movies. While the concept isn’t new, the trend got a massive boost during the pandemic era, when TV watching dramatically increased during lockdowns.
Other summer travel trends are “cool-cations” (summer vacations to destinations with mild climates to avoid potentially record-breaking heat) and “tour travel” (traveling for a concert).
The strength of the U.S. dollar and relatively low inflation are driving more Americans to travel to places where the dollar will go the furthest, like Southeast Asia. And there is a growing interest in Japan, which lifted its pandemic travel restrictions only last year.
New York City and Los Angeles will top the list of the most popular domestic travel destinations this summer, according to Expedia, followed by Seattle, Orlando and Las Vegas.
Internationally, Cancun, Mexico and London top the list. Next up: Rome; Punta Cana, Dominican Republic; and Paris. Other destinations that are trending: Auckland, New Zealand; Hong Kong; Osaka, Japan; and Da Nang and Hanoi, Vietnam.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money.Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
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