Futures Rise As Apple Jumps On Record Buyback; Jobs Report Due

Dow Jones futures rose modestly after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures as Apple (AAPL) beat views and announced a record buyback. The April jobs report looms before Friday’s open.

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Coinbase (COIN), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), MercadoLibre (MELI) and Booking Holdings (BKNG) were among the many notable reports overnight.

The stock market rally attempt had a strong session Thursday in a day-two Fed reaction, with the Nasdaq and small caps leading the way. That’s after market indexes gave up strong gains in the final hour to close mixed.

The market rally attempt still needs an official follow-through day to confirm the new uptrend, with all the major indexes below their 50-day lines.

Nvidia (NVDA) rose slightly, but remains below key levels as well.

Apple rose strongly late after edging past views and announcing a record $110 billion stock buyback. Texas Roadhouse, DraftKings (DKNG), MercadoLibre and Booking stock also advanced. CoinDesk stock fell.

Nvidia stock is on IBD Leaderboard. Texas Roadhouse stock is on the IBD 50.

Jobs Report

The Labor Department reports the April jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 243,000 after 303,000 jobs were added in March. The jobless rate should hold at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings are seen climbing 0.3%, with the annual gain edging down to 4%.

At 10 a.m. ET, investors get the ISM services index. It’s expected to rise 0.6 point to 52, with readings above 50 signaling growth.

The jobs report and services index will give a broad reading on the economy and put the Fed meeting and Fed chief Jerome Powell’s comments from Wednesday into context.

Markets are leaning toward a first Fed rate cut in September, with a 50-50 chance of two cuts for the full year.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures rose 0.5% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.3%. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%. Apple stock is in the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite.

The jobs report will be sure to swing Dow futures and Treasury yields before the open.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

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Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally had a solid session heading into Friday’s jobs report, but it wasn’t decisive either.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.85% in Thursday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.9%. The Nasdaq composite jumped 1.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 bounced 1.9%.

As on April 26, the Nasdaq’s strong price move came on lower volume than the prior session. So there’s still no official follow through day (FTD).

That may be for the best. Despite its strong gain, the Nasdaq had an inside day to Wednesday’s downside reversal. It’s also hard to get excited until the major indexes clear the 50-day moving average. For the Nasdaq, that would also mean reclaiming the 16,000 level.

The good news is that Thursday’s move put the 50-day line in reach.

There were leading stocks gapping out of bases on earnings, including Carvana (CVNA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Glaukos (GKOS) and Aspen Aerogels (ASPN). But buying gap-ups in a choppy market is risky.

Some China names broke out or offered aggressive entries, including PDD Holdings (PDD) and BYD (BYDDF). But Chinese stocks offer another level of risk in an uncertain market.

U.S. crude oil prices fell 5 cents to $78.95 a barrel.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.57%, giving up initial gains.

ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rose 1.05%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped 2%. Nvidia stock is the No. 1 holding in SMH.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rallied 2.6% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) gained nearly 1%. COIN stock is a major holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) advanced 1.4%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) stepped up 1.3%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 0.6% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) edged down about 0.1%.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) climbed 0.6%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) edged up 0.25%.

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Apple Earnings

Apple earnings and revenue edged past views, with iPhone sales down 10%.

The Dow titan announced a $110 billion buyback, the largest ever.

Apple stock jumped in overnight action. Shares rose 2.3% in Thursday’s session to 173.18, moving back above a sliding 50-day line.

Coinbase Earnings

Coinbase earnings beat, with revenue up 112%. COIN stock fell modestly in extended trade. Shares jumped 8.9% to 228.85 on Thursday, still below the 50-day line. The cryptocurrency exchange has pulled back, along with bitcoin, over several weeks. A strong move over the 50-day could offer an early entry in a new consolidation.

Other Earnings

DraftKings reported a surprise profit, easily beating, with strong revenue growth also topping. DKNG stock climbed modestly overnight. The online sports betting giant climbed 2.9% to 43.03 on Thursday, modestly below the 50-day line. A decisive move above that level could offer an early entry for DraftKings stock as it builds the right side of a base.

Texas Roadhouse earnings beat while revenue was in line, with TXRH stock up modestly in extended action. Shares edged up 0.55% to 157.93 on Thursday. Texas Roadhouse stock has been hovering around a 157.12 flat-base buy point for the past several days.

MercadoLibre earnings beat. MELI stock rose solidly in overnight action. Shares of the Latin American e-commerce and payments giant popped 3.4% to 1,505.99 on Thursday, rebounding from the 200-day line and just topping a sliding 50-day.

Booking Holdings easily beat earnings views while revenue also topped. BKNG stock rose solidly to around the 50-day line. The online travel site has a 3,918 flat-base buy point. Rival Expedia (EXPE) also beat views late, but shares fell solidly.

Nvidia Stock

Nvidia stock rose 3.3% to 858.11 on Thursday after slumping 3.9% on Wednesday, but it’s still just below its 50-day line. The AI leader has a 974 buy point from a consolidation going back to early March, according to MarketSurge analysis. Investors could use a decisive move above the 50-day as an early entry, using the April 30 high of 888.19 as a specific trigger.

What To Do Now

The stock market rally had a strong session, but still hasn’t proved itself.

Investors could have made some pilot buys on Thursday, but there were reasons to be cautious.

Perhaps Apple earnings, Friday’s jobs report and other big news will be the catalyst for a FTD and a move above key technical levels. But the opposite could happen, erasing Thursday’s gains and more.

Don’t try to guess what the market will do. Be ready for the actual market moves.

A lot of stocks are setting up or near entries. So make sure your watchlists are up to date, paying special attention to a smaller subset.

On the flip side, if the market heads toward or below April lows, many leading stocks would look damaged or even broken. So have your exit plans in place.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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