Newcastle will play host to an eight race meeting on Friday, headlined by the Group lll Newcastle Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Back Me
9 Frankie’s Me Dad (Bet Now: $3.50) gets the nod. Maher/Eustace trained filly that comes here off the back of a strong win over 2100m on the Beaumont track here where it came down to survival of the fittest and she was strong to the line in winning. The way she toughed it out last time, an extra 200m should be fine, and given how dour she is, I love the booking of Avdulla, who will just keep at her.
Danger
2 Don Quixote (Bet Now: $2.10) is on the seven day back up for Mark Newnham after racing last Friday night at Canterbury where he was last in the run and was never a winning threat but liked the way he found the line late in the piece when third to Infinitive. That’s three runs on the bounce now at the distance range of 1900m so the rise to 2300m suits and he brings the best form.
Long Shot
4 Jimmy Manolo (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Jimmy Choux gelding that took a while to break the maiden tag but if finally came last time at Tuncurry in a similar race to this, albeit much weaker, but he defied the pattern of the meeting and made an absolute mess of them in a dominant display. Now he has a win on the board, he can certainly run well against these.
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Back Me
I think 10 Madam Roselyn (Bet Now: $5.00) is a big enough price to find out if she has an engine under the hood, which I think she has. Her latest trial came over 900m at Rosehill and gee she closed off nicely. Yes, she was under riding, but it’s a big tick for me seeing an unraced horse respond well under pressure. There isn’t much depth to this field so I’ll take a punt on the first starter.
Danger
2 Inhibitions (Bet Now: $2.60) has the winning raceday experience on the board, which should hold her in good stead. That win came over 1200m at Canterbury where she toughed it out strongly to win, though you could say Vomo Island was a tragedy beaten. But, when that horse was probing, this filly held her ground, kept him in and toughed it out. Commands respect.
Long Shot
4 Restonica (Bet Now: $5.50) is a knockout chance. Stablemate of Tom Kitten that debuted on the Kenso track where he was back near last in the run on a day where up/in was the pattern. He was never a winning factor but didn’t mind the way he finished his race off when fourth to Extreme Spirit. Reckon he might want one more run to top him off, but he has talent.
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Back Me
8 Higher Hand (Bet Now: $2.60) gets a great chance to break the maiden tag. He ran around two weeks ago in a Wyong maiden where he attempted to lead throughout and tried to give a solid kick but couldn’t quite finish it off and tired late to finish third to dominant winner Owari. If he leads and gets some level of control, especially on a dry Newcastle track, rail true, he’ll take running down.
Danger
10 Piccadilly Lass (Bet Now: $3.50) is the key threat. She ran in the same maiden as Higher Hand mentioned above and I thought worked home well from off the speed when second to Owari. That was her first run at the mile for the prep and she ran well, so with that under the belt, she should be better off, and if she can settle closer in the run, she’ll look the winner at some stage.
Long Shot
11 Roman Moon (Bet Now: $34.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. Ed Cummings trained mare that resumed over 1500m at Newcastle where she got back on the fence and just lacked any real dash when asked for the effort, finishing down the track behind Marigold’s Dream. Gets a soft gate once again but this time gets Blinkers on to try and sharpen her up. First four threat.
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Back Me
I think 7 Iron Man (Bet Now: $3.60) should be close to favourite and with that in mind, he’s on top in what looks a race in two. Ed O’Rourke trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since his debut back in September at the midweeks at Rosehill when back off the speed and closing off well late in the piece when second to Stylised. Gee his trial work has been impressive to the eye, he maps super and will be strong late.
Danger
9 Pereille (Bet Now: $1.70) is a favourite, and perhaps a deserving favourite…but he’s become too costly to bet with confidence. He has been beaten at odds on in both runs back from a spell. Last start, yes he was held up, but he had his chance I thought late to drive late and win, but on the line was safely held. Blinkers off and T Clark on, so I think they’ll be riding with intent, out of trouble on speed, and being hard to run down.
Long Shot
2 Grand Crusader (Bet Now: $5.50) can bounce back, especially onto a bigger track. He resumed over 1100m at Wyong last Tuesday where he didn’t appreciate the tight track at all I thought and just battled late when third to Restrictions. He did trial up really well prior to the resumption and despite drawing tricky, I think he has the talent to run a much improved race.
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Back Me
8 Fall For Cindy (Bet Now: $3.50) on top for me. Sacred Falls filly for John O’Shea that has only had one run, which came over 1250m here back in September when back in the run and took a while to wind into her work but was very good late in the piece when a close up fourth in what has turned out to be a strong form reference. Closed off nicely in a recent Randwick trial and 1400m fresh signals intent to me.
Danger
5 Lasqueti Boom (Bet Now: $3.40) should appreciate getting to 1400m. She resumed over 1200m at Warwick Farm and I thought closed her race off really well late in the piece, sticking on and finding the line to finish third to Secaution. Has run well at 1400m previously so getting to that trip here is ideal and she has good upside to come re fitness/condition.
Long Shot
3 Lalaguna (Bet Now: $6.00) has had a few chances to break the maiden tag but is honest and should be around the mark. She attempted to lead throughout over 1400m last start on the Kenso track and gave a decent sight but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Cut On A Dime, who goes around in the Randwick Guineas. Last bit will test, but she’ll give a sight I’m sure.
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Back Me
I think 6 Rockbarton Roman (Bet Now: $11.00) is worthy of an each way ticket. David Atkins trained son of Rubick that resumes, having not raced since May 28 here on a bog track when struggling to pick his feet up behind Orbital Express. He’s a dry track horse IMO and looks to have trialled up really well in readiness for his return, and the Atkins/Reith combination are one to follow I think, and at around $14+, happy to speck each way.
Danger
4 Catapult (Bet Now: $6.50) has the strong form around him to give this a shake. He ran over 1550m at Canterbury two weeks ago where he had a suck run behind the speed and seemed to have his chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind For Valour, a borderline Saturday class horse, so that form clearly reads well for a Provincial Midway and maps to get a lovely run once again.
Long Shot
7 Martini Crusader (Bet Now: $6.50) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Closed off well fresh at Gosford before going to Kembla where he was tardy away and just couldn’t get involved when down the track behind Spats Pav Bowie. Third up, hard fit, liking for Newcastle and should be strong at the end. Definitely one of the key chances.
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Back Me
3 Cross Talk (Bet Now: $2.10) could well be a moral. I was keen on him when resuming at Rosehill where he attempted to lead throughout and he tried hard but was no match late for Zeyrek. I just think he needed the run, and I actually think he would love a drop of rain. He won’t get the rain, but the Newcastle track generally does have some level of cushion in it and he should get a very soft lead. He’s clearly the one to beat.
Danger
11 Pizarro (Bet Now: $6.00) is bursting to win a race for John O’Shea. Far from disgraced in the Expressway behind Mariamia before going to Randwick three weeks ago and kept finding the line between runners, just missing out on the win when second to a Stakes class winner, Think About It. All three runs back have been super and he has the right form lines to prove hard to beat.
Long Shot
Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 10 Bellatrix Black (Bet Now: $20.00). Former Kiwi mare that made her Australian debut in the Triscay and I thought she was very good late nearer the inside behind Po Kare Kare. I reckon she might want one more and a further rise in trip, but I was on her fresh, she ran very well and did trial super leading in, so I have to keep following her.
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Back Me
Tough race to close out the meeting. Siding with 11 Sir Ming (Bet Now: $5.50), who resumes for Team Hawkes. He had a two run prep to start his career in the Winter/Spring, the second run seeing him break the maiden tag at Hawkesbury where he overcame trouble in the run to score narrowly but impressively. Been gelded and I thought his two trials to get ready have been solid enough to the eye. Happy to be in his corner.
Danger
7 Shohei (Bet Now: $2.80) is a stablemate of Sir Ming that is also first up. This mare hasn’t raced since November 11 over 1550m when on speed and trying hard but just had no answers late for Mission Phoenix, who has since gone on to win at Stakes level. Can’t find a trial/jumpout for her so guessing where her fitness levels are at, but she has the right form to command respect.
Long Shot
10 Harlem Groove (Bet Now: $12.00) has home track advantage and isn’t racing too bad. Close up third two back to Cheerful Legend here, who went on to win a Midway. Then went to 1400m here and loomed to win but didn’t quite see out the seven furlongs behind Star Impact. Like him back to 1200m and with that 1400m run under the belt, he should be strong at the end.
BEST BET: Race Four Number 7 Iron Man
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 Cross Talk
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 6 Rockbarton Roman
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 8
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7
Leg Three: 3, 11
Leg Four: 7, 10, 11, 14
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
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